2009 ready for the history books and most are pleased that finally the year the rearview mirror. In many respects, 2009 was the most important years, decades, in the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression, financial scandals and Ponza systems historical proportions, and the greatest uncertainty as to what may be on the horizon, since the terrorist attacks of 9 / 11 In the light of what had just endured, we all anxiously wondering what the future holds, especially ahead in 2010.
2010 will also come up, down, or something between the two?
My nature is to want to share an optimistic outlook for 2010. However, in a real world forecast, cautiously optimistic that that will continue its fragile recovery, absent any further shocks to our financial system. Why? Well …
Stable energy prices should be
Recent articles in the authoritative publications have reported that the land is full of crude oil storage capacity and mothballed tanker anchored off the Atlantic coast of the operation is simply a floating storage tank. A recent inventory showed that 50 + tankers anchored off the coast of England alone.
Most oil-producing countries, most of the national income comes from crude oil sales, so the incentive to keep pumping, regardless of the market price in order to maintain a source of income, which will keep supplies plentiful. So, the world’s Awash in oil, the shops inventory exceeds demand, resulting in downward pressure on gasoline prices. Overall, gas prices remain relatively stable during the first half, missing an unplanned disturbances such as a large refinery fire or a hurricane to destroy the oil platforms. This is good news to all household and business in our budget for oil-based economy.
Everything consumer spending Drives
The modest economic improvement is widely reported in the last half of 2009 is likely the result of companies simply restocking of depleted stocks low, which is good news but not good news. The current consumer buying behavior is much better gauge of what we think and what we are. Media (and their own observations and informal interviews with various managers), the writing shows that consumers are generally only announced the purchase loss leaders and then immediately leave the stores. This scenario implies that the retailers would start in 2010 in a weakened state because of having to charge higher seasonal inventory (and profits) 50% -70% discount for cash flow.
I think that consumer spending remains restrained in 2010, because of the increased household savings rate (a potential benefit, but reducing consumption in the short term), not a planned new car payments, household budget from the federal Cash for Clunkers program for high unemployment (unemployed spend little, and little is spent), and this loan or not available at all or only a negative interest rate, and even if it is.
Credit-starved Economy
Credit is available for most large companies (as defined in the financing of corporate acquisitions is now required for the news), but is likely to remain close to the small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in 2010. Banks say that they should give money to this area, but the reality is, although the rating has been set so high that very few will be able to fulfill it. It is noteworthy that the economic barriers continue to exist despite the government Small Business Administration loan guarantees, the President repeatedly citing bank CEO in the White House to urge them to begin lending again.
If a longer-term loans is still not available, SMB’s will, however, that the only recourse left, which is necessary to fund the operating cash of the credit card debt. Unfortunately, this option is fraught with danger, because lending institutions issuing credit cards fast-changing conditions of increased interest rates to usurious levels that require most of the new pages to the variable interest rate (a practice that helped us into this mess in the first place), and the lower credit limits before the new federal laws coming into force in February 2010 effectively sidestepping legislation aims to curb these abuses.
Upcoming Real Estate Tsunami
A lot of retail loans in default in 2009, very well turn into a lot of Foreclosures in 2010. There is a federal program designed to help besieged homeowners to reduce interest rates (and mortgage-related payments), which in theory will help to correct the problem, however, proved to be ineffective for two reasons. First, the current program eligibility rules, homeowners must have a current mortgage terms to be used to eliminate a large number of homeowners have an error. Second, the Federal Reserve reported that only a small percentage, and for those who have already applied to renegotiate the mortgage servicing in fact, and the slow processing speed is almost certainly guarantee more homeowners who are tapping the 401 (k) ’s to make payments and will continue to be entitled to the default, if the financial resources are exhausted.
Commercial real estate value and investment income will probably take a drubbing, as a free store front, drive down the rent is renegotiated in 2010. Failing that, the companies have set up the glut of vacant commercial space in several areas, and a free trade area does not generate income. Surviving business owners for a number of alternative sites to choose from, and will use the surplus to the leverage to negotiate lower rental rates for the space they occupy until the distant future is possible.
Properties will be devalued and all kinds of harmful effects on the local tax digest, forcing the local government, or that a property tax rates or operating system and the school’s budget. Which option do you think the local government do?
The threat of hyperinflation
Finally, a quick return would create hyperinflation for several reasons. The stock is so low that the increase in demand is rapidly increasing stock prices eliminates shelf stock buyers competed for the remaining inventory. Manufacturers redundant workers so that they no longer have the staff to meet increased orders in the near future, which drives the price, the distributor of the available stock. Meanwhile, some sectors of the economy the stimulus Awash in money and help pay the higher price, which would remove restrictions on the market and drive up prices. So, a rapid increase in demand should be avoided, and the Federal Reserve will adjust the monetary policy (raising rates), to try to prevent this from happening.
The point is
What does all this mean? Well, if the above scenarios make sense, then, is my proposal is for small and medium enterprises, such as work experience, depending on the choice of procedure and services for industrial companies prepared to customers and patients to defer discretionary spending, while the second half of the 2010th If you are a retailer, you should keep inventories lean in the first half.
Does all this happen? It’s hard to say because they have never been here, but they shared the best hypothesis. I think you nailed, or is it something else to say? I look forward to your comments.